"The earliest fragment of the New Testament dates to AD 125."
P52 is early, but recent scholarship widens its date.
Evidence card
The rating is tied to the stated evidence, the stated caveat, and the named source trail below.
Evidence
What can be affirmed
Caveat
What the slogan hides
Source trail
3 named sources
What's actually true
C.H. Roberts dated P52 (a fragment of John 18) to ~AD 125 in 1934, based on paleography. This is the basis for the popular claim of a 30-year gap between composition and earliest manuscript.
What gets left out
More recent paleographic work (Brent Nongbri, Pasquale Orsini and Willy Clarysse) argues a wider range, somewhere between AD 125 and AD 200. Paleography alone cannot date a hand more precisely than within about 50 years. P52 is still the earliest, but 'AD 125' is an upper-end estimate, not a settled fact.
Source trail
Named scholarship, catalogues, or projects used for this claim rating.
Citation cue
Roberts 1935
Citation cue
Nongbri 2005
Citation cue
Orsini & Clarysse 2012